ABSTRACT
Several vaccines against COVID-19 are now available, based on different techniques and made by different laboratories spread around the world. With the roll out of the vaccination process in an advanced stage in many countries, the reduced risk of hospitalization due to the Omicron variant relative to the Delta variant infection, despite the higher transmission risk of Omicron, may lead to a misinterpretation of the results, as infection by Omicron is associated with a significant reduction in severe outcomes and shorter hospitalization time than the Delta variant. We compared the in-hospital mortality due to the Omicron (Jan-Mar 2022) with Gamma (Jan 2021) and Delta (Oct-Dec 2021) variants of patients in the Brazilian public health system. This study also discusses the decrease in booster vaccine effectiveness in patients hospitalized due to the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant. Without a remodeling of vaccines for new variants, booster doses may be necessary with a shorter time interval.
ABSTRACT
Historically, carbon dioxide emissions from transport have been a globally discussed and analyzed problem. The adoption of flex fuel vehicles designed to run ethanol–gasoline blends is important to mitigate these emissions. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the ethanol–gasoline price ratio on different vehicle models, and discuss the opportunities to increase ethanol consumption from this perspective. Our analysis shows that the use of a unique fuel economy ratio for all flex–fuel vehicles in the country significantly reduces the opportunity of some customers to purchase hydrous ethanol. The paper also discusses possible actions to provide adequate information that may increase the possibility of fuelling vehicles with a high-level ethanol blend.
ABSTRACT
We classify the main variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus representing a given biological sequence coded as a symbolic digital sequence and by its evolution by a cellular automata with a properly chosen rule. The spike protein, common to all variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is then by the picture of the cellular automaton evolution yielding a visible representation of important features of the protein. We use information theory Hamming distance between different stages of the evolution of the cellular automaton for seven variants relative to the original Wuhan/China virus. We show that our approach allows to classify and group variants with common ancestors and same mutations. Although being a simpler method, it can be used as an alternative for building phylogenetic trees.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/genetics , Cellular Automata , Genome, Viral , Humans , Mutation , Phylogeny , SARS-CoV-2/geneticsABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus SARS CoV-2 responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic and SARS CoV-1 responsible for the SARS epidemic of 2002-2003 share an ancestor yet evolved to have much different transmissibility and global impact 1. A previously developed thermodynamic model of protein conformations hypothesized that SARS CoV-2 is very close to a new thermodynamic critical point, which makes it highly infectious but also easily displaced by a spike-based vaccine because there is a tradeoff between transmissibility and robustness 2. The model identified a small cluster of four key mutations of SARS CoV-2 that predicts much stronger viral attachment and viral spreading compared to SARS CoV-1. Here we apply the model to the SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1) and Delta (B.1.617.2)3 and predict, using no free parameters, how the new mutations will not diminish the effectiveness of current spike based vaccines and may even further enhance infectiousness by augmenting the binding ability of the virus.
ABSTRACT
We report strong evidence of the importance of contact hubs (or superspreaders) in mitigating the current COVID-19 pandemic. Contact hubs have a much larger number of contacts than the average in the population, and play a key role on the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. By using an age-structures compartmental SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected symptomatic, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) model, calibrated from available demographic and COVID-19 incidence, and considering separately those individuals with a much greater number of contacts than the average in the population, we show that carefully choosing who will compose the first group to be vaccinated can impact positively the total death toll and the demand for health services. This is even more relevant in countries with a lack of basic resources for proper vaccination and a significant reduction in social isolation. In order to demonstrate our approach we show the effect of hypothetical vaccination scenarios in two countries of very different scales and mitigation policies, Brazil and Portugal.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19/prevention & control , Models, Theoretical , Brazil , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/virology , Humans , Portugal , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Vaccination , Vaccine EfficacyABSTRACT
We present an analysis of the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and a social distancing metric from data for all the states and most populous cities in the United States and Brazil, all the 22 European Economic Community countries and the United Kingdom. We discuss why the infection rate, instead of the effective reproduction number or growth rate of cases, is a proper choice to perform this analysis when considering a wide span of time. We obtain a strong Spearman's rank order correlation between the social distancing metric and the infection rate in each locality. We show that mask mandates increase the values of Spearman's correlation in the United States, where a mandate was adopted. We also obtain an explicit numerical relation between the infection rate and the social distancing metric defined in the present work.